Brent Crude
$92.40+1.8%
War and Markets
Market intelligence for geopolitical risk
Cross-asset pricing suggests traders are discounting prolonged shipping friction but not full physical energy seizure. The most important current signal is that insurance and freight costs are rising faster than confirmed supply loss, indicating early margin pressure.
Last updated: March 5, 2026
18 deep-dive analysis pages
4 cross-market hubs
Scenario-first methodology
Market Snapshot
S&P 500
5,138-0.6%
Gold
$2,164+0.9%
US 10Y
4.21%+0.02
Defense ETF (ITA)
$136.8+1.3%
Shipping Rate Index
1,842+2.1%
OIL
Oil Price Predictions During War: Data, Scenarios, and Risk
Brent scenario matrix, historical conflict table, and wallet-to-portfolio transmission analysis.
$95-$120 base band
Read Analysis →
EQUITIES
Stock Market During War: Historical Returns and Drawdown Math
Conflict return database with drawdowns, days to bottom, and 1/3/6/12 month outcomes.
DEFENSE
Defense Stocks Analysis: Contractors, ETFs, and Conflict Cycles
Contractor comparison, ETF overlap math, and escalation-versus-delivery return patterns.
Research Hubs
HUB
Oil Market War Analysis Hub: Pricing Drivers, Routes, and Scenarios
Hub page linking oil pricing, Hormuz chokepoint risk, country exposure, and scenario tables.
HUB
Equity Market War Analysis Hub: Drawdowns, Rotation, and Recovery
Hub page linking historical returns, sector rotation, defense equity exposure, and portfolio behavior.
HUB
Shipping Chokepoint Risk Hub: Hormuz, Red Sea, and Cost Transmission
Hub page linking Hormuz and Red Sea route economics, insurance stress, and pass-through models.
HUB
Macro War Risk Analysis Hub: Inflation, Recession, and Policy Regimes
Hub page linking recession risk, historical war economy data, and live market indicators.
Analysis Stream
Each stream entry links to a full analysis page with data tables, scenario framing, and related cross-asset context.
OIL
Oil Price Predictions During War: Data, Scenarios, and Risk
Brent scenario matrix, historical conflict table, and wallet-to-portfolio transmission analysis.
$95-$120 base band
EQUITIES
Stock Market During War: Historical Returns and Drawdown Math
Conflict return database with drawdowns, days to bottom, and 1/3/6/12 month outcomes.
12 of 15 positive at 12M
DEFENSE
Defense Stocks Analysis: Contractors, ETFs, and Conflict Cycles
Contractor comparison, ETF overlap math, and escalation-versus-delivery return patterns.
Backlog quality > headlines
SHIPPING
Strait of Hormuz Shipping Risk: Energy Flow and Economic Exposure
Flow breakdown, closure matrix, vulnerability rankings, and shipping-to-consumer cost transmission.
21M bpd chokepoint
SANCTIONS
Iran Sanctions Economic Impact: Enforcement, Evasion, and Markets
Policy timeline, enforcement mechanics, evasion pathways, and tightening-versus-relief scenarios.
Compliance risk is priced
MACRO
War Recession Risk: Indicators, Transmission, and Scenarios
Indicator dashboard plus scenario matrix linking escalation intensity to recession probability.
25-45% baseline odds
GUIDE
Portfolio Protection in Wartime: Evidence, Hedges, and Mistakes
Commercial-intent action guide with safe-haven ranking, hedge mechanics, and tax-aware decisions.
Discipline beats panic
DATA
War Economy Historical Data: Master Reference for Markets and Macro
Reference page for researchers and investors with standardized conflict-to-market impact data.
WWII to present
SECTORS
Defense Industry Stocks and Sector Impact Analysis During Conflict
Heat map framework for conflict-era sector winners, laggards, and reversal risk.
Dispersion drives alpha
SHIPPING
Red Sea Shipping News Today: Costs, Delays, and Market Exposure
Suez traffic comparison, reroute economics, product exposure, and pass-through timeline.
Route days +10 to +20
HUB
Oil Market War Analysis Hub: Pricing Drivers, Routes, and Scenarios
Hub page linking oil pricing, Hormuz chokepoint risk, country exposure, and scenario tables.
Hub: Oil Intelligence
HUB
Equity Market War Analysis Hub: Drawdowns, Rotation, and Recovery
Hub page linking historical returns, sector rotation, defense equity exposure, and portfolio behavior.
Hub: Equity Intelligence
HUB
Shipping Chokepoint Risk Hub: Hormuz, Red Sea, and Cost Transmission
Hub page linking Hormuz and Red Sea route economics, insurance stress, and pass-through models.
Hub: Shipping Intelligence
HUB
Macro War Risk Analysis Hub: Inflation, Recession, and Policy Regimes
Hub page linking recession risk, historical war economy data, and live market indicators.
Hub: Macro Intelligence
SUPPORT
Country Energy Import Exposure: Japan, India, EU, and China
Country vulnerability ranking by route dependence, reserves, and inflation pass-through sensitivity.
Support: Country Risk
SUPPORT
Wartime ETF Comparison: Energy, Defense, Gold, and Treasuries
ETF role matrix for energy, defense, gold, and treasury sleeves under conflict scenarios.
Support: Instrument Lens
SUPPORT
Conflict Market Indicators: Freight, Inflation, Credit, and Energy
Indicator dashboard page with threshold framework and update log.
Support: Signal Dashboard
SUPPORT
Conflict Market Timeline: Event-to-Price Response Chronology
Chronology page linking event stages to oil, equity, freight, and policy reaction windows.
Support: Event Chronology
Historical Context Bar
Get conflict market briefings in your inbox
Weekly scenario updates, revised data tables, and sector risk memos.
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About and Methodology
War and Markets is a financial intelligence resource focused on market transmission, not battlefield reporting. Each analysis links data sources, timestamps assumptions, and cross-references adjacent pages to improve decision quality.
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.